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The voters of each block keep the PSOE and the PP as referents on the left and right, leaving any "sorpasso" far away.
Of course, the Murcia give a strategic role to Citizens, which will be the party decided by the government, and would prefer to opt for a coalition with the PP.
It is the Socialist Party that would rise with the electoral victory, with 29.4% of the votes, against the Popular Party that would obtain 27.9% of the votes, although they would tie 14 seats.
Citizens would become the third political force in the region with 18.3% of the votes, which would grant 7 seats, while Podemos would get 8.6% and 4 seats.
It should be noted that two new forces break into the Regional Assembly: Vox with 5 deputies and 9.9% of the votes, and Change the Region, coalition of IU and Anticapitalists, which would return to the Assembly with 1 deputy.
Finally, other political options such as Somos Región would be left out of the Chamber as they did not reach the threshold of 3% of the votes.
It is expected a participation of 66.8%, which is more than a point and a half above the regional elections of 2015.
The study detects a hidden or indecisive vote around Vox, which can vary 1 or 2 deputies the final result of this game, for the benefit or detriment of the Popular Party.
A part of the potential VOX voter hesitates to punish the PP or give him a useful vote.
When asked about their vote in the general election less than a month ago, 7.7% of respondents say they do not remember what they voted for, and less than half of Vox voters say they voted for this party.
With this scenario of fragmentation and multipartyism in the Assembly, pacts to form a government are necessary, and in this sense a PP-C's pact is the favorite among voters, with 19.8%, while a PSOE- C'S is preferred by 14%.
Against these pacts, 11.8% shows their preference for a government of the PSOE alone and 9% of respondents prefer a government alone of the Popular.
Regarding the assessment of regional leaders, Diego Conesa is the most valued, giving voters a score of 5.6.
The popular Lopez Miras is next with a 5.5 and Alberto Garre gets a 5.2.
They are followed by Isabel Franco, of Ciudadanos, who registers a 4.9;
the leader of Podemos, Oscar Urralburu, gets a 4.8;
Alvarez-Castellanos, of Ganar, gets a 4.7, while Vox's candidate, Pascual Salvador, gets a 3.8.
These data must be, in turn, valued in relation to the degree of knowledge of the leaders by society.
López Miras is known by 63.5% of the population, followed by Diego Conesa by 44.8%, while Alberto Garre gets a 37.2% recognition, Oscar Urralburu is known by 29.3%, Isabel Franco by 20.3% and the Change candidate, José Luís Álvarez-Castellano, by 13%.
The VOX candidate, Pascual Salvador, is only known by 9.8% of the respondents.
Asked about the main problems of the Region of Murcia, respondents indicate unemployment as the first, with 36.2%, followed by water with 14.5%, health with 13.2%, and transport and communications with 12.5%.
It was also asked about the economic evolution of the Region in recent years and 34% of the people surveyed consider that it remains the same, compared to 33.2% who believe that it has worsened and 31.2% believe that it has improved .
Regarding the political situation, almost 40% of the people surveyed consider that it has worsened, while only 17% consider that it has improved.
Video: Pablo Blesa, dean faculty Communication UCAM
Source: UCAM
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