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The group of Atmospheric Regional Modeling (MAR) of the University of Murcia (UMU) collaborates in the study on the exponential increase of forest fires in relation to global warming.
Led by Marco Turco of the University of Barcelona (UB), they foresee a scenario where, if they exceed 3 degrees, fires will increase by 100 percent.
This is the first analysis of forest fires as a consequence of climate change in relation to the 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees Celsius global warming scenarios established in the Paris Agreement (2015).
Turco highlights that "if the aspiration to limit the warming below 2 ° C is met, the fires will increase by 40%", this being, despite everything, the best scenario.
Scientists hope that this threshold is not exceeded, but under certain conditions.
For Juan Pedro Montávez Gómez, principal investigator of MAR, there is sufficient technology that develops at a rapid pace, "you can achieve the pact if you bet and give political support."
Sonia Jerez Rodríguez, member of the UMU team, puts the focus on the energy transition towards the supply of renewables by those non-third world countries with technical development and abundant natural resources.
In this sense, the UMU group also analyzes renewable energies in relation to climate change, since they depend on atmospheric conditions.
"The results are encouraging: there will be no significant reductions in the abundance of solar and wind resources, or large changes in their variability, that is, it is a safe, clean bet that promotes local employment and favors air quality", claims Jerez Rodríguez.
On the other hand, in the social and political context, the experts establish three main issues: the interested skeptic sector, the diffusion of the same in the media and the importance of disclosure.
Jerez stresses that it is a mistake to disseminate the skeptical messages that come from economically interested parties.
Montávez emphasizes that "science is not democratic: we can not vote among all if there is climate change or not, we can not decide whether Newton's laws are true or false."
Even so, they observe an improvement in communication between society and the academic world, an advance in awareness.
Montávez emphasizes that: "There is a communication problem, we have to manage other ways of reaching society beyond making a scientific article, it is our responsibility to guarantee that the message arrives without disturbances, but that it crosses the office. from YouTube, our articles do not have 40,000 visits. "
The role of Murcia regional modeling
One of the novelties is that until now the relationship between climate and fires has not been quantified with the specific scenarios (Paris Agreement), taking advantage of a large database to obtain reliable results.
"First we developed an empirical climate-fire model, then we fed this model with scenarios of regional climate change projections," the Italian scientist illustrates.
In this sense, the Murcian group adds with its experience in regional modeling.
"We provide the data that fits into your empirical model: In Murcia we have no experience in fires, but we do have the impact of climate change at the regional level using these simulations, and we are used to working with the uncertainties in future projections, to understand them and interpret them ", exemplifies the physicist of the UMU.
The researcher clarifies that "uncertainty does not mean not knowing, but serves to evaluate the robustness of the results, in this case, taking it into account there are no discrepancies, but variation forks".
In other words, the results are solid: the burned area will increase, but with the right measures the dramatic 100 percent increase can be avoided.
Source: Universidad de Murcia
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